🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”