NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of postseason berths are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is at stake, such as the coveted #1 rankings in each conference and four divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have crafted a dramatic ending, with the final two play-off positions on the line in two direct head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will secure the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
Houston need a win coupled with a Jaguars defeat to climb from fifth to third. Denver will earn the top seed with a triumph, but a setback could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still claim the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are set at the seventh spot. The highlight, however, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC earns a crucial first-round bye and home games throughout the postseason.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the second seed plays the seventh, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
In the second round, the #1 seeds enter the competition, hosting the weakest remaining seed. The conference championship games are then played at the best remaining team, highlighting the critical value of securing that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter rivalry comes to a head in the final game of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot at stake, this is a genuine elimination situation.
The Steelers have been inconsistent all year, while Baltimore struggled early but remain in the hunt. Key injuries may prove critical: The Steelers may be without key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a health issue.
Star rusher Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for the Ravens in what is set up as a hard-hitting, defensive battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the division title is at stake when Seattle visits San Francisco. The winner claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the championship game that comes with it.
This matchup features an explosive San Francisco attack against a stingy Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy returned, the 49ers have been the league's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's unit is rated second best in the league.
Seattle quarterback their passer needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. Whoever comes out on top gains a massive advantage for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs comes into this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed chances to secure the division.
The Panthers it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is more complex. Even with a victory, they require another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest key players gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to New England.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They require a triumph and defeats for both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)