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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.