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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.